Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Moneyball!!!

“And the 2009 Heisman Memorial Trophy goes to…” My heart was pounding. I knew without a doubt who it would be. College leader in rushing yards, 6 more rushing TDs than any other running back, and a passer rating of over 500 (1 of 1 for an 18 yard touchdown). He took his team to their second best record this century up to that point (and it’s first bowl game in eight years), and ran amuck against Notre Dame, breaking more tackles than many guys get carries in a year., finished his career at Stanford with the top two single season rushing totals (1136 and 1871), tops in season TDs (28), career TDs (44), second for career rushing yards (3522), and 3 PAC-10 season records,all while pulling in a 3.9 GPA at an Ivy League caliber school with a double major in Management Science and Engineering.

He was the most outstanding player in the country.

“… Mark Ingram.” WHAAAAAAAAAAAAT?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

This guy won by getting 200 fewer rushing yards, 10 fewer touchdowns, and sharing a back field with Trent Richardson (800 yards and 8 TDs). The lone reason for winning the award was because he was on an undefeated Alabama team whereas my favorite, Toby Gerhart, played for an 8-5 Stanford team. In his defense, Gerhart was able to lead the most successful second place vote in Heisman history.

My vote still goes to Toby. Nobody dominated his team’s success that year more than Toby Gerhart. He didn’t have a star throwing (Andrew Luck was only a for star recruit out of high school), no receivers to pull defenders away, and no blockers of note. He was bigger and stronger than most people that tried to tackle him. Going back to the Notre Dame game, I saw at least 5 plays where he broke 3 or more tackles, and in the end, the defense just let him walk into the end zone. They knew that he was going to score anyways, and just let him do it sooner and with less bruises. His team was average, and he  helped take pressure off the future of the team (and maybe even the future of the NFL). Yes, if not for Gerhart, Andrew Luck would have been pounded for his entire first season. Instead, he got to survey the game while playing an entire year. If Toby hadn’t played that first season, Luck would have been pounded into dust, and Archie Manning wouldn’t be saying how Luck and Peyton WON’T share a backfield.

Okay, I’m probably exaggerating a little bit regarding Luck, but Gerhart was easily the most dominating player in the FBS in 2009.

Now, we are in a similar situation.

Another player in red and white will play second fiddle to an overrated Alabama running back. Montee Ball is leading the FBS in rushing yards and is currently second all-time for single season touchdowns, and only just got into the Heisman finalist group. He has a dozen more touchdowns than anyone in the country. His teams only losses were on desperation heaves. The Wisconsin Badgers relied on Montee Ball. His team lost both games in which he rushed for only 1 TD, and I’m putting that one on play calling. He ran through Michigan State’s defense to the tune of 252 yards and 4 TDs while hauling in another 2 through the air, a defense that was #1 in the Big Ten in rush defense and total defense. When the Badgers were down, half of QB Russell Wilson’s TD passes went to Ball. And anyone that wants to argue that Ball only did this well because of Wilson is mistaken. Watch tape. Ball makes people miss; he runs people over; he stiff arms; he bounces outside when interior blocking doesn’t make a hole; he forces his way into the endzone. Wilson enjoyed the season he did because of Ball. Wilson is good; he is athletic and has a powerful and accurate arm developed in the Minor Leagues of the MLB. But when the Badgers forced the pass (down 8 or more points), Wilson’s pass accuracy dropped from 72.5 to 58.3. When the Badgers needed to win, they went to Ball, or they lost.

Against a Penn State team that Richardson went for 130 yards and 2 TDs, Ball went for 171 yards and twice the touchdowns. Against teams then ranked in the Top 25, Ball rushed for an average of 149.25 yards, 3 TDs, whereas Richardson Averaged 126.75 yards and 1 touchdown. I see a discrepancy.

Now to Andrew Luck. He is throwing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. He has all day in the pocket and can wait for a defender to slip or cut the wrong way. Yes, he has helped Stanford rise to power, but his numbers this year are worse than last year, a year that saw him come second in the voting.

RGIII has some monster numbers, but so does Case Keenum, and he isn’t here. 36 TDs is made more impressive by only 6 interceptions (6-1 ratio for you math majors), but Russell Wilson has 31 TD passes and only 3 ints (more than 10-1). But 5 QBs had more yards than him, and 3 more TD passes. Griffin also has 4 losses on the season. Gerhart got snubbed for being on a poorer team, and Griffin will, too, though I think he is the second on this list behind Ball (Though I am biased, you also shouldn’t be able to argue with 38 visits to the endzone).

Do people not know that Paul Hornung won the Heisman on a 2-8 Notre Dame team?

Mathieu is dang good, but on a team with two great corners, he is not the most outstanding player. His team can win 10 or probably even all 12 games without him. Baylor cannot win 5 without Griffin. Wisconsin cannot win the Big 10 without Ball.

If Ball didn’t basically take the non-conference games off (about 17 touches a game), he would be unanimous #1 on this list, even with the 2 losses. In conference, Ball averaged about 28 touches a game for over 190 yards and 21 points. Oh, and his perfect 2-2 passing for 57 yards and 6 points. If he averaged that for all 12 games up to this point, he would have 336 touches for 2280 yards and 42 TDs. How is that for a Heisman resume?

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