First, read Ask Vic if you are a Green Bay fan. He is amazing. I love his writing, and I stand by him. His knowledge of football is fantastic, both the game and the business, but his willingness to admit he knows nothing relative to the coaches and management teams is refreshing.
I'm going to do the opposite. I'm going to pretend I know more.
In Ask Vic on 1/11/16, Eric from Strampoy, the Netherlands, wrote in the following.
"Vic, you expecte Rodgers to step up; he told us he would, and he did, and so did the entire team."
Matt from Clarkson, Michigan asked
"Was last night's game the turning point? Did Washington awaken the Packers' offensive giant[?]"
Well, I think this is stupid. Rodgers threw for even less than his incredibly low 216 yds/gm average that he had been throwing the last four weeks of the season, and completed fewer than 60% of his throws at less than 6 yards per attempt. He started out the game 1/8 for 11 yards in the first quarter, his lone completion being his first attempt. His passer rating was under 40 in the first frame. Granted it did jump to 93.5 by game's end (a 115ish rating if you drop out quarter 1). This is still not a great game for him. His career playoff average is 64.8 completion, 266yds/gm, 7.5yds/att. Is that Rodgers fault? I don't REALLY think so.
Going through my head (I don't have NFL rewind), I can recall dear number 12 over throwing a number of receivers. Do I blame him for it? Not really. On a few of the overthrows, receivers are being man handled by D backs way down field. On a throw down field, one defensive back gave the receiver a shove to keep him from getting in range of the ball. Another pulled on Cobb to keep him from breaking out on a corner route. Both ended up incomplete.
The problem I see is speed and quickness. Watch James Jones. His first catch was a comeback, an oft run route by the 31 year old pass catcher (or dropper, depending on your view of him).He runs up twelve yards, and then stops and turns for the ball. He hops back right as the ball is getting to him, and then is immediately tackled. This is a comeback. A COME-BACK route. Not a stop route. I hate these, cause I suck at them. You run up, and at a designated point, usually a few yards beyond where you want to end the play (13 yards on first and ten, for instance), and breakdown (powerfully, and in as few a number of steps and as quickly as possible, stop moving forward), turn around, and then come back to where the ball is expected. This route is used to get the defender to turn his back (to switch from watcher the receiver while backpedaling to turning to run downfield with him), and then add a few more yards of cushion when the receiver comes back a yard or two.
If you watch Jones' routes, there is little to no separation at any point during the play. He runs up, stops, and turns with no comeback to the ball. This allows for the DB to break on the ball better. Latter in the game, he runs another comeback that ends up incomplete, but this one he ran up, again stopped and turned inside (did not comeback), but then took a step toward the OUTSIDE while squaring up to catch the ball. That is a perfect invitation for an interception (see Xavier Rhodes in the Week 17 matchup. Jones stops, floats to the outside, and makes a half-hearted effort when the ball comes his way resulting in an easy pick by Rhodes).
On his 34 yard reception, former Packer Will Blackmon played Jones' poorly. When Jones stopped running across the formation, Blackmon ran up on him, and Jones went deep. Blackmon gets burned, but still catches up to Jones rather quickly, closing from a 3 yard gap to tackling Jones immediately after making the catch. Also note that Rodgers threw inside from Jones, causing him to come infield just a yard or two to get out of the DB's range of deflection. Jones lack of speed was obvious on that play.
On Jones' second to last reception of the night, he covered by Breeland in press. He comes up 6 yards before starting to cut inside (it appears to be a post route, or a terrible in route). The corner is so much faster that even with a double move he is slightly AHEAD of Jones, not trailing him. Rodgers makes a good read and throws the ball slightly behind Jones so he has to slow up and snag the ball with his trailing shoulder for an 8 yard gain.
Davante Adams is a different story. He isn't a burner either, by any means. He ran a rather pedestrian 40 yard dash (4.51). His 10 yard split and last 20 yards are both slow (1.64 and 1.92). On his TD snag, as with most routes I see him run, the ball is snapped,and Adams immediately, but slowly, takes a step to square up with the DB before making a move to lose coverage. In fact, he still has on foot on the line of scrimmage while James Jones (who is probably even slower) is already seven yards downfield of where he started. Adams gives a jump start to his routes, neutralizing any speed advantage against press coverage. This play only scored because Rodgers drew off the zone coverage by looking to the flat on his side. Even on Adams' his 20 yard catch two plays earlier, he again takes a slow step before making a move against his coverage.
The offense did not play that much better. Rodgers did not play that much better. There were fewer drops (though still some), the run game had some big runs that normally they don't get. But the core problems are far from over.
In the run game, the team started the first half 9-17 rushing. Cobb led the way with 8 yards on two carries (4y/a) as well as three good stiff arms and another possible stiff arm in there. Lacy went 4-6 (1.5y/a) and Starks was 3-3 (1y/a). By the end of the game, Lacy and Starks each had 12 carries for 63 and 53 yards, respectively, and Cobb went 5 for 24. Kuhn went 2 for 2 and Rodgers ran once for a one yard loss. Team total was 32 rushes, 141 yards at 4.4 yards a clip.
On Starks' 22 yard scamper, the defense knew where the run was going, but Starks made one guy miss; a 270lbs defensive end. Jones got away with a decently obvious hold to spring Starks an additional 10 yards.
On Lacy's 11 yard run, Sitton walls off, but doesn't stop, Will Blackmon. What should have been a 20 yard gain was 11, but a 4th down conversion is fine by me.
Lacy's 30 yard burst was slow, plodding, and he avoided contact with a DB, breaking down in the open field instead of barreling into a guy who he had an angle on to beat him to the corner, and whom he outweighed by 40lbs. Aim for the corner, and then sharply cut back in to attack the defender if he is about to catch you. Don't break down and give everyone you just left behind and stream in from the blocked side time to catch you!
Don;t get me wrong. I think that stringing the successful plays together (five straight scoring drives) is great work. But on the drives where things stalled, they were terrible. On the drives where things worked and they scored, it was mostly a game of inches that gave us our big plays.
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