Monday, August 3, 2015

An economists view. Don't worry; we are trained to be wrong.

I have often joked that by getting my degree in economics I was qualified to be a weather man. After all, I would be paid to guess and more often than not be wrong. Okay, the good ones are pretty accurate, but a simple mistake can bring a lifetime of work crashing to the ground.
I'm not here for that. I am here for something else (but keep in mind that my thoughts on this view are related to the first paragraph; incomplete and flawed, and I will have few sources as much of this information is being relayed from memory). I want to talk about two things. First; minimum wage. Second; trickle down economics. The first topic because it has dominated the news quite a bit due to Seattle's decision, and the subsequent decision of places like L.A. to follow suit. The second because of a conversation I had with my rugby club president while on the beach (okay, the bro jokes can now commence). 
Minimum wage is a tricky subject. I call still recall fairly clearly a picture on the front page of the Sheboygan Press from my high school days where an old lady looked sad and frightened. The article it was connected to regarded minimum wage, and how this woman would hardly afford food. She continually purchased a handful of staples to get her through her weeks. Rice and bananas were chief among them. I would love for people to be in a more comfortable financial position. I encourage it. I hope to find feasible and sustainable ways to make that possible.
Here are a few problems, though. In History of Economic Thought, I was tasked with researching minimum wage. The studies I found regarding it discovered that increases in minimum wage were hurtful to the employees gaining higher wages as well as the companies paying more. Increased wages pushed people into higher tax brackets, decreased financial supports in such things as food stamps, and decreased eligibility for other government supports. Higher wages also had a tendency to lead companies to either release people, cut hours, or decrease benefits (retirement matching, health, etc.) in addition to increasing prices for their products. What was found to be the more successful path was providing tax breaks and refunds for people. 
Additionally, with regards to Seattle specifically, things have taken an unexpected turn. The workers themselves have preempted their employers by REQUESTING to "cut down their hours to stay on those subsidies because the $15 per hour minimum wage didn't actually help them get out of poverty." Tipping is being discouraged, and restaurants are increasing prices by 15%, and some stores are selling what they admit to be near superfluous memberships to customers to simply cover costs. By the way, the wage is currently only at $11 per hour. Over the next few years there will be a much larger backlash to the increased wages as prices of food and goods soar. 
I am reminded heavily of Germany post WWI. Most every child had millions of Duetsch Marks to play with. Hear that; millions. As is common knowledge, it was easier to burn the stuff than go buy fuel. Increasing everyone's wage to $15/hr will only shoot inflation through the roof in my mind. As soon as the economy is reset, we will see that $15 is the new $7.50.
Minimum wage is not intended as a living wage. Many of these positions exist to give youth, high school and college aged individuals, chances at working and gaining revenue and experience. The job was not designed to support a family. In that project I did regarding minimum wage, it was the youth, not the adults, who were more likely to keep or get a job once wages increased. I am not intending to be rude or dismissive, by the reason the wage is depressed is because the available pool for workers in that capacity is large. (uh-oh. Here comes the math-ish stuff)
I learned that in high school when my teacher told me a gorilla could do my job as long as he kept his hair trimmed appropriately (I worked at Coldstone Creamery. Gorilla hair would be a bit upsetting in ice cream). These comics and stories people put out regarding "an alternate universe" or comedians spoofing sports shows for school shows are, unfortunately, largely unfounded. The reason that teachers make a low wage relative to sports figures is simple; there are more teachers coming out able to perform the job than there are athletes. In graduation years '03, '08, '12, and '13, just shy of 670,000 people graduated with a degree in education (667400 to be more precise) or an average of 166850 a year. The average class size in the US in 25-26 students per teacher in public schools. With 55 million students slated in Fall 2014, this anticipates about 2.11 million teachers. With 165,000 graduating each year, this means that the entire teaching industry would have to turn over every 12.8 years for there to be no gaps in employment. Strangely, even though each of us knows that one teacher who has been at the same school since Sabre-tooth tigers were the students and not just the mascot, the average career length is a mere 11 years with 25% of teachers leaving within 4 years and a whopping 50% leave an urban school within 5 years, But that still means that around 150,000 people are qualified for a position as an educator coming out each year. How many people are deemed able to play professional football each year? 1273 have been drafted in the last five years. Just under 255 people each year are picked to take the job in the NFL each year (I know there are undrafted free agents) with about 90 players per team at the highest (or 2880 players). Average turnover in the NFL, at least on accounting books, is about 5 years, meaning maybe 600 players each year are able to get the job. There are over 90,000 college football players, meaning 8% of high school players play some level of college ball (oh yeah, there are only 15,170 Div I players). 3%. If 20,000 players leave college football each year, 3% make the NFL. Of the millions that play high school ball, .24%, or about one in every 400, make it to the NFL. The skill set is far higher. The margin for error far greater. The skills you teach at McDonalds and Coldstone and Wal-Mart are relatively easy to match compared to a job as an educator, or a lawyer. The skill required for playing pro sports is rare, and is therefore paid as such. It is because of these (rather long winded) reasons that I am not a fan of increasing minimum wage.
Now let us go to trickle down theory. The argument arose when my club president said "Reagan is a douche." When I asked why (no idea what sparked the statement, by the way), he responded he just was. "I don't care if you are a liberal or a conservative, he was a douche." He ended up eventually bringing up trickle down theory as his argument as to why stating "giving rich people tax breaks so they give money to people doesn't work." He repeated this statement in some form or another multiple times as one of his only supports. He also cited human selfishness and unpredictability as forces for its failure. 
I am somewhat leery of this. I can understand WHY someone would see trickle down theory as a good idea. I don;t have data on it, however. But here is an argument for it.
Back in the 1800's, it would have been near to impossible for John D. Rockefeller or Andrew Carnegie to have run their companies from across oceans. If they were taxed at a huge and high rate, they would have to basically suck it up. Today, if you try and tax someone who doesn't want to be taxed at 90%, they are going to likely leave the country. I cannot recall if it was Rolling Stones or U2 who set up shop in different countries, as have professional tennis players, to escape high taxes. Imagine if Bill Gates were tight-fisted with his money. He would buy his own friggin island and never pay a government entity a dime. Today's technologies allows for business to be run around the world from a laptop tablet phone as you use the toilet in your own home. High ranking officials can now simply jump a border to escape a high tax. This is lost tax revenue on personal income tax. Now let's tax the company a high rate. At this point you may very well see companies uproot and move. Costs from the move are mitigated and more than made up for in higher profits by escaping taxation.
Again, I am not saying cutting taxes for corporations and CEOs is going to solve all the problems, but the theory is there, and it is pretty defensible. By providing financial incentive to remain put, or even start new businesses, self serving individuals will build business and spark the economy on their own in an effort to make their own profits. Theory? Works. Practice? A bit hit and miss.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Burdens and Dreams

There is an invariable battle in my life between what I want to do and what I am required to do. Requirements, including things such as work, take up my time and energy when I would rather be devoted to something else. Desires, reading for pleasure and working out for instance, are activities I wish to be able to spend my time doing. Easy distinction, right?
A few weeks back, I posited the question regarding (to paraphrase) "If everything you hoped for and work for come to fruition, would you be happy?" Yesterday, while doing clinical observation hours for my Master's program, someone asked "What is your goal?" My immediate reaction was to over analyze, and think 'what ARE my goals???' but I reigned in an responded that I wanted to work at Roncalli, teaching and coaching. I eventually expounded upon my answer to include "getting to the point where I don't have to worry about money."
My thoughts tend toward mathematical, but slightly simple mathematics (lots of multiplication and division, budgeting, mortgage analysis). I will always THINK about money. However, I anticipate getting to where I don;t have to think "I need this much for student loans, this for my car payment, this for mortgage, this for savings, this for emergency fund." I am excited to be free of being shackled by money, ruled by it, and my actions commanded by it. I don't need a hugely paying job to buy a mansion and drive a hot rod of a car. I want a simple house with room for a family of 5, parks and play sets within easy walking distance, and cars that are safe.
So often I let myself get overly affected by stress. It is a bad habit. I am trying to overcome it. However, one day I won't have these problems, and that'll be great.
Of course, I will probably find other problems to succumb to by then.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

I'm really not sure if I'm nice

This post will go through a couple different phases I'm realizing, now that I am considering the material to be covered. My mind is not always linear, for which I sometimes apologize. 
My mind first went to this title as I considered my interactions with a few people over the past week. I had a rather trying time, and the conversations I began to have with people in my mind (not out loud) were, at times, laced with profanity and insults. These interactions continued with my family. I was playing a new game with my mom and sister, and the two of them teamed up on me right out of the gate. The game was still fun, and I had to leave early to go to work, but as I was trying to decide how to best approach my family regarding my being upset at their conduct towards me, my thoughts again became aggressive and angry. I don't want to cuss at my mom! Sometimes I want to cuss at my sister, but not usually. It really put into perspective that I was not in a good place.
It also got me thinking about why I behave the way I do. Having studied economics, I have been reinforced in some ideas regarding why people act the way they do. Jeremy Bentham argued that all people like pleasure and hate pain. Adam Smith claimed that by pursuing ones own goals, they would benefit the whole. John Stuart Mill took these ideas one step further. Mill wanted everyone to benefit, but also encouraged our behaviors to not infringe on others (his works included pushing for state education, while minimizing taxes and government spending, but I don't think I'll go too into depth on that). Mill, generally known for his philosophical work over his economic work, adapted from a cold calculator to a deepened romantic. He determined that people should behave a certain way, but that they usually don't. 
Economics teaches that people choose based on pleasure; more pleasure equates to a higher likelihood of the choice being made. So why are people nice? Why do people do charity work? Why calm children instead of yell at them? Hopefully people make that choice because it gives them a sense of happiness and satisfaction that they are doing good. I determined last Friday something strange regarding myself; many of my choices are made with regards to how others perceive me. Now, this probably isn't a rare occurrence, but I do wonder how many people recognize it about themselves. I don't think I really wanted to go to college, though I am glad I did. I didn't want the job I have, but I went though the application process because I thought it would be easier to do that than it would be to deny the person encouraging me a favor. Again, I am glad I did. But last Friday, I was leaving a friend who I had visited, and I thought about why I was leaving. It came to mind that I simply didn't want to go through the hassle of getting a new job, dropping responsibility on others of leaving work, it would be trying finding an apartment, etc. I mean, this was all a knee jerk reaction to wanting to stay an extra day, but it was still a strong urge. I made my decision (to go back to work in a timely manner) because I didn't want to tip the boat. 
So, what would happen if I pursued only my own happiness a la Adam Smith? Well, I would be semi-broke at best, probably. Scouting doesn't pay so hot. I would be joining a bunch of club sports and playing video games every night. I would have fun! But something else came up to me. When reading about the life of Mill, he had a mental breakdown. Not surprising; he was raised by a father who never showed emotion, a mother described as cold and unfeeling, relegated to thinking he himself was an imbecile because his father made him re-write his analytic papers until they were perfect, and had no friends. His epiphanous break down was regarding happiness; he stated in his autobiography "Suppose that all your objects in life were realized; that all the changes in institutions and opinions which you are looking forward to, could be completely effected at this very instant: would this be a great joy and happiness to you? And an irrepressible self-consciousness distinctly answered "No!" At this my heart sank within me: the whole foundation on which my life was constructed fell down. All my happiness was to have been found in the continual pursuit of this end. The end had ceased to charm, and how could there ever again be any interest in the means? I seemed to have nothing left to live for."
I decided I should test this; What am I working for, and what will I feel if I accomplish it all? 
Well, that will be a post for another day!

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Let's get this straight...

There are numerous hot button issues in the socio-political sphere of the US right now. Women's Rights, Gay Marriage, Legalization of Marijuana, Ebola, Healthcare are the ones that immediately come to mind. Abortion is still hotly debated. Minimum wage is a near constant struggle. Immigration is always a popular arguing point.
The topic I would like to focus on today is gay marriage, specifically as it relates to religion. I attempt to lead a religious life. I will freely admit that I am constantly falling short of my potential. I still hope for and work towards progressing and improving. So keep some things in mind here; simply because I voice something as a reason behind my stance on the topic does not mean that I fully exemplify it, but that it is something I hope to be applying in my life. Additionally, this is as I understand it to be, not the official position of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. To business!
I do not know the chemical or psychological process which influences attraction. I have had some gay men come out to me in saying that they chose to have relationships with men because the sex was better while they were high, or they stated they like guys, but there are a lot of girls they really like. Some have told me they have always liked guys. For me, I don't know why I like the girls I do, I simply see a girl, and like her. Due to the diversity of the answers I have received on the subject, I cannot say why anyone is attracted to what. So, that topic is unsettled, and remains open.
Now, on to reception of homosexuality. As stated above, I have friends that are homosexual. Some are very close to me, and some are mere acquaintances. I believe that very little changes within me when I discover someone is gay or not. It would be naive of me to state nothing changes, because every cause has an effect, but I think that I am adept at continuing to accept that person on the same level, given that they operate (more or less) at the same level I understood them to be. To expound and explain that statement, there has been occasion where I develop a friendship with someone, and after coming out they change a great deal. It may be that they are conforming to what they have always intended of themselves. They may simply be trying to be a different person. I don't know what thoughts they have. This is a rare occurrence, though, so I hardly worry about it. The point I am attempting to make here is that I normally do not let the change in stated attraction change my perception of the person.
Hopefully I have made clear that I am a decently accepting person. So please be patient with me if you are in support of gay marriage. My view of marriage is of the fairly traditional christian view; one man and one woman for the creation of a family. This position IS the Official Stance of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. A common, comically based, argument I hear from promoters of same sex marriage is "well we wouldn't want to ruin the sanctitiy of a marriage like Kim Kardashian, now would we?" in addition to citing the mere days that Britney Spears was married. Another argument is simple; it's not my business or it isn't my responsibility to decide for them and hold them accountable to my rules. Well, that is a fairly good one. However, to counter slightly, when was the last time you ate with a vegan who didn't voice it and then try and sway you to "end the slaughter of animals" or something of the sort? I know it isn't the same, and I know that is a generalization that does not hold true for all, but neither is comparing a diet to marriage or saying all Christians are sexists, racist, warmongers.
I hope I am not coming off as crass, because I'm really trying to not be. I also hope I don't offend any of my dear friends (or any other friends) who hold a different opinion than me. I will freely admit that I am hugely disappointed that the wedding I'm missing this winter is a gay marriage. So please keep in mind; I am not trying to incite anger or start an argument.
To continue; I am greatly offended by the marriages of Kim and Britney. A number of issues have led to the degradation of marriage, most of which I will not touch on here. However, I still hold that I support marriage to be between a man and woman with the intent of creating a family that should carry on for eternity. Here is where another common argument is made; what about a couple that can't have kids? In my mind, it holds that they have the opportunity to create life. I believe in an afterlife that is similar to our life here. I figure that a couple, even if they are unable to have children in this life, will have that chance in the eternities.
My whole view is based on a religious reasoning; I believe in a Plan of Salvation set forth before the creation of the world, and that Plan required our lives on earth to learn, choose, and grow. For us to come to earth, people need to procreate, and bring new life into the world. If it seems as though I am discounting adoption as second hand or unworthy, I am not. I hope to adopt after I have a handful of my own kids (we'll see if I still want 4 of my own kids and another adoption or two after the little rug rats come into the world). A loving family is the basic building block of society. Take a lifespan human development class, or a psych class of any kind. The argument of nature versus nurture is hugely important; are we who we are because of who our parents are, or because of how we were raised? I have always argued vehemently for both sides. Which is stronger, I couldn't say for sure, and that is not a discussion for this time (though I think it has application). The family is hugely important because it is nature, and it should be nurture as well. I was given a training session on borderline personality disorders recently, and there is often a sense of abandonment that is directly associated to the nurture side of the equation. Yet, schizophrenia is generally attributed to genetics. I'm sidetracking here, but lemme get it out this way; family is important for not only supplying the genetic makeup that will influence a child, but also the life experiences of a young person. For these reasons, family is view as a crucial portion of society.
So my progression of personal logic; the Plan of Salvation calls for our lives on earth. The family provides the path to earth in addition to the path through it. So I view marriage as a way to invite new life into the world.
Okay, so in the same way I would attempt to sway people to my political, economic, spiritual, or athletic tendencies, I would also try and let people know how I feel regarding this issue of same sex marriage. I am not attempting to tell them they are wrong. Heck, I have held staunchly to many of my workouts in the face of people around me bulking up because I have learned that the same thing doesn't work for me. It would be asinine of me to assume other people are not the same way. I gain weight when I run. That is not common. I do not hold other people to the same standards or expectations I hold myself to. I will still invite them to those things that have brought me comfort or direction in my life. I do so not to disprove or alienate, but because I have found satisfaction in living that way, and I hope that others can also find it by doing the same thing.
(Written 1/17/15)

Going out with a bang, and a bucket

It was the beginning of the end of the year. Christmas was just around the corner. It was a Wednesday, 8 days before Christmas. I had, just the day previous, been appointed as the Director of a halfway house. I started feeling a headache coming on. I never get headaches, so when these symptoms start I tend to take notice. The headache was soon followed by a sore throat. No real problems though. I continued to work as usual. Thursday was fine, as I swamped my system with enough honey infused hot lemonade to flood the Grand Canyon. Friday was a bit different. As part of my new position, I was charged with driving across the state to evaluate potential residents for our facility. I woke up with a squeaky, pinched voice. It sounded like I was going through puberty, in all honesty. But I hopped in the car anyways, and drove the 240 miles necessary to go to the hospital where the potential resident was staying. My voiced squeaked and cracked slightly through the whole interview, and by the time I left it was getting to be painful to swallow. Saturday was much the same; my throat progressed to being more pained, tighter, and more swollen. I bowed out of choir Sunday morning. I was excused by my mother from helping prepare the house for our annual Caroling Party, so I slept for 2 hours. I had trouble eating because of the pain of swallowing. When I went to bed, I could feel my throat closing up, the pain increasing with each swallow. I began to hang my head over a pail, letting my mouth leak out instead of attempting to swallow. It was still too painful, so I ended up in Urgent care at 11pm where I was diagnosed with... an idiopathic acute viral infection. Well, I sure am glad you could at least tell me what was attacking me! A bunch of liquid OXy later and I could just barely tolerate swallowing. My administrator told me to stay home, and even rearranged a number of my appointments to be followed up on, in an abbreviated fashion, on Tuesday. Finally, more than a week after the headache started, I felt almost normal. It took until Saturday for there to be no noticeable pain when I swallowed. The headache had abated by the end of Christmas day, and I was no longer tight voiced.
There were a number of traditions I missed out on this year; The LDS Sheboygan Ward Christmas Day Polar Bearing event, the day after Christmas Ice Bowl, and Caroling. It was a rather disappointing Christmas for me, at least socially.
However, I had a wonderful holiday season. I was sickly, tired, and fatigued, but I was happy and excited. Drugs, disease, and buckets could not sway me!
(Written 12/29/15)

It's like a hover craft... except nobody wants one!

As an RA, you get to know a whole group of people each and every year. It is almost like living on a Freshman (First Year Student) floor each and every semester of your college career. I lived in sophomore housing once, and it was dreary. No doors were ever open. It was quiet all the time. I was charge up and down the hallways at full speed whenever the Packers scored because I felt there was no risk of anyone EVER being in the halls.
But Freshman floors seem to always have that period of time where everyone comes out of their shell a little bit. Each resident gains a portion of the identity of the floor. Our identity was Mario Kart 64 with tournaments and leader boards. A community is built every year in a way that groups of older students don't build. As an RA, you are able to witness this again and again.
Downsides do exist. The one on my mind today is regarding helicopters. Two immediately come to mind; helicopter parents, who call to argue and complain about a drinking offense or vandalism fine or something of that ilk. The other is a helicopter resident. These first year students, and sometimes older ones as well, latch on to the RA as a friend, and hover around. They work their schedule around eating with the RA, spending time with the RA in the afternoon or evening, even going so far as to ask the RA for advice on fraternities or going to school dances. 
[IThe more I wrote about these students, the more I recognized that I was like this to my freshman RA. I didn't have a roommate, and he was right next door, and I thought he was awesome. Still do. Grant was a freaking awesome guy. Sophomore year, when I was still only 20 years old, a friend gave me a bottle of Capt. Morgan's spiced rum, and (it being my first semester as an RA) I was rather nervous about having alcohol, so I did the logical thing; I CALLED MY RA! Grant was (as usual) awesome about the whole thing. He held on to it for the entire semester, and gave it back once we left. I hope I wasn't a burden on him.]
Helicopter residents knock on the RAs door, walk up to them to have a conversation while they are studying in the library, or try and talk to them while they run on a treadmill or lift in the gym. It puts a peculiar burden on the RAs ability to carry out their duties. I have seen residents like this have almost a complete breakdown when they get in trouble with the RA they thought was their best friend. 
An RA student relationship like this can be trouble. If the person never grows out of that habit, it can be detrimental to establishing fulfilling relationships. I still meet people who cling to others, establishing their self worth around the attention they receive, and acting out in terrible fashion if that attention isn't given.
Don't hover. Don't rate your worth on other's thoughts or attentions. 

Sometimes you've got to cut and run.

I am overwhelmed. Seriously. It isn't to the point where I am stressed. It is beyond that. I get home, and it is into bed with me. I wake up at 4am and dread getting up at 7 to go to work. I am afraid each time my phone goes off because it could be someone from work.
And yet with all this, I do like what I do, but it is a bit too much. Interacting with the residents may be what is burning me out the most. To the best of my knowledge, I am not supposed to see them this much. They are always around, talking to me from the time I get in to start the day until an hour after I was supposed to leave, because they keep asking "can I tell you something?" and other such things. I am exhausted. I hardly workout at all any more. I eat like crap. I have the highest body fat I have had in my life.
What do I do?
(Written 2/26/15)